The Classics 2024 - Guineas, Derby, Oaks, St Leger

“The thoroughbred exists because its selection has depended, not on experts, technicians or zoologists, but on a piece of wood: the winning post of the Epsom Derby.”  Frederico Tesio

Classics 2024 ante-post portfolio

Classics Bets 2024 

2,000 Guineas: Iberian 40-1 each-way - 11th

1,000 Guineas: Dance Sequence 6-1 - 9th

See The Fire 8-1 - 12th

The Oaks: Forest Fairy 15-2 - 7th

The Derby: Ancient Wisdom 6-1 - 8th

Arabian Crown 12-1 each-way 

16th July 2024:

The entries for the Group One St Leger, the last of the Classics for the season, have been announced today. Los Angeles is the current favourite with Illinois second in. Their trainer Aidan O'Brien looks to hold a very strong hand, not that surprising, and in fact trains more than half of the entries with fourteen of the twenty-five entries being housed at Ballydoyle. Grosvenor Square, which I put forward as a potential St Leger in the Dirty Dozen at the start of the year, is still in the race at around 20-1 at the moment along with another Dirty Dozen member in the shape of Charlie Appleby trained and Godolphin owned Ancient Wisdom at 10-1. The full list of entries can be viewed below.

Betfred St Leger entries

Betfred Derby

The going at Epsom on Derby day is good-soft, overcast but with no rain forecast. Bellum Justum in the colours of King Power Racing won the Listed 1m2f Betfred Blue Riband Trial here at Epsom in April so the undulations and idiosyncrasies of the track will be nothing new to him. This is a pretty big step-up in class but the son of Sea The Stars is out of a middle-distance mare in Natural Beauty so from a family that has produced middle-distance types such as G.1 winners Warrsan and Luso down the years as well as more recently multiple G.3 winner Laaheb. He may out run his odds. Ambiente Friendly won the 1m3½f Listed Lingfield Derby Trial last time easing down, the well fancied Illinois second, which was a considerable step-up on his efforts to that point the step-up in trip clearing suiting the colt. A line through Defiance, a close second to Bellum Justum at Epsom but eleven-and-a-half lengths adrift of Ambiente Friendly at Lingfield, confirms he must be on any shortlist but he will need to progress again on his third start of the campaign. Macduff had fair if not spectacular form as a two-year-old and it appears was always fancied as a middle-distance type at three. Useful comeback run when second to Arabian Crown (my ante-post punt for this sadly now injured) in the G.3 Classic Trial at Sandown over 1m2f on good to soft and certainly looks the type who could improve this season. By Sea The Stars out of Present Tense, she was no great shakes on the track but hails from a Juddmonte family that has produced plenty of good ones, including Kingman, but most were best over slightly shorter than the mile-and-a-half so will need his sires genes to be influential if he is going to stay. Dancing Gemini just couldn’t quite pick-up Metropolitan on soft in the mile G.1 Emirates Poule d'Essai des Poulains at Longchamp earlier this month. That was perhaps a bit of a surprise result and this trip is a complete unknown but as a son of Camelot and his grandsire on the dam side being Australia there is reason to believe he’ll get the mile-and-half. Was fifth in the G.1 mile Futurity Trophy Stakes won last back end by Ancient Wisdom. City Of Troy has gone up and down like a tarts knickers in price over the last few weeks for the Derby with money coming for stablemate Los Angeles in recent days. City Of Troy was the short-priced favourite all winter following an impressive win on soft in the G.1 mile Dewhurst Stakes last autumn but a poor effort when sent off odds-on for the 2,000 Guineas at HQ saw him drift to as big as 8-1 before coming back in to around 2’s when it was announced Arabian Crown wouldn’t run. He’s back out again to 11-4 now. There would have to be a question mark about his ability to see out the mile-and-a-half on softer going. Aidan O’Brien appears confident in his charge still saying this week “We just accepted that all these things just happened and went wrong on the day (2,000 Guineas) and we’ve decided to stay with the plan. He’s done nothing since to make us change the plan. The plan was always to start with the Guineas and go on to the Derby and then go wherever after that and that’s where we still are. I would always say if something doesn’t work I might not have done my homework right. Obviously when he goes down to the start he should be relaxed but he wasn’t, he was flustered and his mind just wasn’t in the right place. It will make it very interesting the next day. For us, I’m not sure we’ve ever sent a horse to the Derby with as much ability as this. If we can get him to come out of those gates and everything to work properly for him, then we can have him in the right place. I don’t think the trip will be a problem, no. I don’t think I ever did. I never thought any trip was a problem for him. You’re never sure until you do it, he has a big, long stride and he’s usually very chilled and relaxed but it will be a very interesting race now." Los Angeles was a G.1 winner on very soft ground in France in the 1m2f Criterium de Saint-Cloud as a two-year-old and won on his seasonal debut at Leopardstown in the 1m2f Derby Trial Stakes. A son of Camelot, who went so close to taking the Triple Crown in 2012, he is by Frequential a mare that never raced but hails from a French family with plenty of middle-distance form on softer going down the generations. You can see why the money has come for him this week and he looks to have every chance. The Bookies are taking no chances with Ancient Wisdom and none of them are offering a price worth an each-way punt. The son of Dubawi will need to improve on this second in the G.2 1m2½f Dante on paper (I tipped him that day) but in fairness he didn’t get the clearest of runs about three out and may have bumped into a very good one there in the shape of Economics (connections decided not to run here); we simply won’t know until that one runs again. He appeared fine on the good going at York but his best two-year-old form was on soft and heavy and the rain we have been getting and the word soft in the going description will surely have helped his chances. I said at the start of the year when adding him to my Dirty Dozen for the season this one might be more a Derby contender than Guineas but either way will surely win races in 2024 and be worth following; well here we are. It is a bit of a leap of faith but Charlie Appleby has been making all the right noises this week saying “He’s a past Group One winner in the Futurity Stakes at Doncaster in very soft conditions we know there were that day. I was happy with his reappearance in the Dante. There was a very good winner (Economics), but I felt this horse was going to show plenty of improvement there with all the right signs since. He relishes the slower ground and the forecast being potentially the way it is he will hopefully encounter that on Saturday. Therefore it will enhance his chances. William sat on him this morning (Wednesday) and the whole team are delighted with the way the horse has progressed from his first start as a three-year-old there in the Dante to where we are today. We’ve got a horse there who is going to be a live contender.” Reportedly later to come into his summer coat than the sadly missing Arabian Crown you’d expect improvement for the run at York and he is one of the colts lining-up that is a definite mile-and-a-half type I would say. Ancient Wisdom has to overcome a wider draw breaking from eleven – a stall which has yet to produce a Derby winner - but that looks like one of those stats that doesn’t really mean a lot as there have been plenty from either side so I am not too concerned by that; in fact the most successful gate is ten, since stalls were introduced in 1967 stall ten has seen ten Derby winners break from it. I am sticking with the son of Dubawi (sire of Oaks winner yesterday) as there is plenty of stamina on the Dam side of the pedigree and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Charlie Appleby has him cherry ripe for the race. I am on at 6-1 this morning.

Betfred Oaks

The going at Epsom for Oaks day is good-soft with a chance of showers throughout the afternoon. Of the trial winners you’d have to say the Musidora Stakes winner Secret Satire looked the most impressive. It was a surprise win to say the least but she didn’t appear to be stopping over the 1m2½f at York and that has proved to be the trial to find an Oaks winner recently. After just the four starts she should still be improving and the form of her Musidora win was given a little boost when the second that day Francophone won a Listed contest at Goodwood last weekend. You Got To Me won the Listed Lingfield Oaks Trial Fillies' Stakes, Rubies Are Red second and Treasure fourth, and is middle-distance bred. An OR of 98 though tells you all you need to know, she will need to improve a fair bit on that to win an Oaks. Rubies Are Red has been running to a fair level but remains a maiden after three starts, perhaps unlucky in running not to win the Lingfield Trial. As much as she may improve she’ll have to if she is to break her duck in a Classic. Treasure, in the ownership of the King, looks to be running for place-money at best and is one that looks likely to find a mile-and-a-half too far. Ezeliya runs for Dermot Weld and he doesn't run them for the sake of it. She won the G.1 1m2f Irish Stallion Farms EBF Salsabil Stakes at Navan as her prep by a cosy half-length and she hails from a family owned the Aga Khan with plenty of middle-distance winners in it. By Dubai her dam Eziyra was a multiple Group winner over 1m2f and 1m4f, and a couple of generations back you have the likes of Irish Oaks winner Ebadiyla and Gold Cup winners Estimate and Enzeli so the trip should hold no fears. Weld said in the build-up “She’s a medium-sized filly with quality and I expect her to run a good race. She’s never been over a mile and a half, but she gives every impression that the trip will suit. We hope it will, but I can assure you she isn’t short of pace.” Dance Sequence is a bit of a conundrum as she’ll appreciate the softer ground conditions but will she see out the trip? There is a chance she might but her pedigree strongly suggests 1m-1m2f might be her perfect trip and she looked a little green still in the finish at Newmarket in the Guineas. Charlie Appleby said “We have been very pleased with Dance Sequence and she looks great. We have given her a nice little break since the 1,000 Guineas, when she could never really let herself down on ground that was too quick for her. Conditions at Epsom should be much more to her liking, although the step up in trip is a question mark. We are hopeful that she can stay and, if she does, it’s obviously going to be an interesting summer. She goes into this in great order, has a sensible draw in two and we are looking forward to it.” The 1,000 Guineas is hardly a trial but four subsequent Oaks winners have contested the first fillies Classic in the last ten years with Love (2020) and Minding (2016) landing the double. 2022 Oaks winner Tuesday and 2015 winner Qualify were both beaten in the 1,000 Guineas before triumphing at Epsom. With the longer trip expected to suit her, those stats give the chances of Ylang Ylang, fifth at Newmarket on her seasonal debut, a fair boost. The chance of Ylang Ylang is there for all to see, should also enjoy the softer ground conditions, but I have a nagging worry that the race may be run in a style that may not suit her; will she blow her chances racing too keenly early?  Where we often talk of Ballydoyle being mob-handed and potential ‘tactics’ for this year's Oaks Ralph Beckett is the trainer with multiple runners in the shape of Forest Fairy, You Got To Me, Treasure and Seaward. All being in different ownership I highly doubt any are in here to do a specific job for one of the others but the fact the trainer runs four, and two of them You Got To Me and Seaward are likely to be prominent if not the pace setters (Seaward led the Cheshire Oaks won by Forest Fairy) it wouldn’t surprise me if the yards runners ensure this is run at a decent steady pace from the off; Secret Satire probably won't be hanging about either. A steady decent paced race from the start would mean horses having to be able to relax early and stay the trip well and there is an argument that the likes of Ylang Ylang may find this tougher than some may think; she has tended to race a bit with the choke out. Forest Fairy is the least exposed in the field, two wins from two starts, with her Listed 1m3½f Cheshire Oaks win being just her second start, and we have seen plenty of Oaks won by improving fillies with seven out of the last ten winners having run between two and six times before winning at Epsom. This is a fairly big step-up in class obviously, but she traveled strongly at Chester, the tight circuit a test of balance as well, before having to fight her way through to get a run off the home turn and staying on well up the short run-in to nick it. I have a feeling she may have more to give yet. “Forest Fairy was very backward and immature and she had an issue at two and so didn’t come to us until October,” Ralph Beckett said of the most-fancied of his runners this week. “We were surprised that she was able to win like that first time out (by six lengths at Wolverhampton), and then because her work on turf at home was good, we decided to take her to Chester for the trial. You would hope she’d come forward again for that, based on her inexperience.” From the first crop of multiple G.1 winner, including the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, Waldgeist she is the first Black Type winner for her sire. The filly is out of an unraced Lope De Vega (French Derby winner) mare Baham Girl an Ammerland bred granddaughter of their multiple G.1 winner Borgia. When this one wins they’ll be celebrating as much in the foothills of the Alps in Germany at the stud as they will be at the Beckett yard Kimpton Down Stables. I’ll be having a bit of a knee’s up at Triple G Towers as well and I am on at 15-2 this morning.

30th May 2024: 

We will see a field of sixteen go to post for the Derby on Saturday. City Of Troy, who is one of three runners for Aidan O'Brien, remains the market leader with stablemate Los Angeles second best and Ancient Wisdom third favourite. O'Brien withdrew Prix du Jockey Club-bound Diego Velazquez amongst others. The going at Epsom has been updated this morning to good to soft (from soft, good to soft in places), with showers expected this afternoon.

Derby runners and riders

29th May 2024: 

A field of twelve fillies will go to post for the Oaks on Friday afternoon as the confirmed runners and riders for the Epsom Classic were revealed on Wednesday morning. The two Ballydoyle runners, Ylang Ylang and Rubies Are Red head the market. 

Oaks runners and riders

Caught U Looking Colin Keane
Dance Sequence William Buick
Ezeliya Chris Hayes
Forest Fairy Rossa Ryan
Making Dreams Clifford Lee
Rubies Are Red tbc
Seaward Silvestre de Sousa
Secret Satire Oisin Murphy
Treasure James Doyle
War Chimes Tom Marquand
Ylang Ylang tbc
You Got To Me Hector Crouch

24th May 2024: 

It Appears trainer Tom Clover is set to saddle his first runner in the Betfred Derby after connections of recent Chelmsford City maiden winner Tabletalk revealed the colt is to be supplemented into the Classic on Monday for £75,000 by owner Abdullla Al Mansoori; he already has Kamboo in the twenty-one entries for the Classic. The limit on Derby runners is twenty so a couple will need to drop out for this one to get a run. Following the victory of Notable Speech in the 2,000 Guineas after three runs on the All-Weather could we have another All-Weather graduate Classic winner? This one made debut at Kempton in December when third before his victory at Chelmsford in early May. The son of Camelot did win easily enough over 1m2f at the Essex track but the second was making debut and the third rated just 71 so it’s fair to say Epsom will be a big step-up in class if the colt runs.

22nd May 2024:

It is being reported this morning that Callum Shepherd has lost the ride on Derby hope Ambiente Friendly with Robert Havlin now getting the leg-up. The colt is owned by the Gredley Family and Tim Gredley told the Racing Post "It's a big call to make but we wanted to have more experience on the day. Dad and I have had a chat with Callum and there has been no falling out. He's ridden us plenty of winners but we thought Rab Havlin had more experience of a big occasion like the Derby which will be a big day for all of us. Rab has ridden winners for us and won the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes on Audience the other day which was a massive race to win. I think Rab went in and had a sit on the horse for the first time this morning at James Fanshawe's and we're very much looking forward to the race."

17th May 2024: 

A post on the Godolphin X account has revealed Arabian Crown (I am on at 12's and the colt was as low as 3's yesterday) will miss the Derby! The tweet states: An update from Moulton Paddocks: Unfortunately Arabian Crown will miss the @EpsomRacecourse Derby due to a set back. He will now be aimed at a late summer campaign. Hopefully he'll be back and show how good he is in the summer but my nightmarish May continues......................Gutted. City Of Troy is now around 2-1 clear favourite. 

16th May 2024: 

Ancient Wisdom was pushed out to 20-1 for Epsom off the back of his defeat at York in the G.2 Dante Stakes, but Charlie Appleby is not ruling out the possibility of firing a twin assault on Derby saying afterwards “Derby-wise I think we’ll just let it all settle down. I know it’s only two and a bit weeks to Epsom and people want us to make a call sooner, but I think it depends how much he progresses from it really. A mile and a half is definitely going to be his trip. Will said he wouldn’t be worried about Epsom or the ground, it’s just whether he wants a sterner test because as we all know you can be a mile-and-a-quarter horse round there and get the mile and a half because you’ve got to be able to travel. This horse will come on a lot and he’s allowed himself more time in the spring than Arabian Crown has. Arabian Crown came early and came in his coat, whereas this horse is still not there in his coat now. Arabian Crown looked more a staying type than this horse we felt on all evidence we’ve seen and we’ll have to see how much this horse jumps forward.” When asked whether he felt Buick would face a difficult choice if he does run both horses in the Derby, Appleby said “I think at the moment Will would have a job to get off Arabian Crown really, but if this horse comes out and does a decent piece of work it might be a different ball game.”

As far as the Derby is concerned we haven't learnt a lot over the last few days and City Of Troy and Arabian Crown have actually both shortened slightly with City Of Troy now best priced 11-4 in places and Arabian Crown available at 4's with a couple of bookies, as short as 3's with others. Following their exploits last weekend Ambiente Friendly is around 7's having won the Listed Lingfield Derby Trial and Los Angeles 8's having taken the Derby Trial at Leopardstown. 

14th May 2024:

Aidan O’Brien has been talking about his Oaks and Derby runners this week and you simply have to take note. Dealing with the fillies he said of Ylang Ylang “We’ve been very happy with Ylang Ylang. She’s always looked an Oaks filly more than a Guineas filly, but we let her run in the Guineas and she ran very well. Ryan let her find her feet and she was coming home very well. “She won the first two times ridden forwards, but that was just the way it happened. Then she was a little bit keen and got beaten twice. She ran a shocker in the Moyglare, but then got back in the right mindset and she turned all that form around in the Guineas, they were a good bit behind her so it’s amazing how things can swing around. Ryan (Moore) is confident that 10 furlongs will be no problem at all to her and if they stay 10 furlongs, there’s usually a good chance of staying 12 furlongs at Epsom. Going from the Guineas to the Oaks is just a natural progression and what we’ve always thought she would do. She’s by Frankel and he speaks for himself.”

QIPCO 1,000 Guineas

The first fillies Classic of the season, the 1,000 Guineas, has a slightly more open feel to it than than the 2,000 Guineas, in fact you can make a fairly strong case for half-a-dozen in the field at least. Fallen Angel is certainly bred to be a miler and having won the 7f G.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh last September was put away for the winter with this race very much in mind. She has been backed into favouritsim but I am not convinced the Moyglare Stud Stakes was that good a renewal and the form possibly questionable. The grey is bidding to give her trainer, Karl Burke and jockey Danny Tudhope, their first British Classic success. Ylang Ylang ran five times as a two-year-old, putting in a couple of below par efforts in September including in the aforementioned Moyglare Stud Stakes having won her first two starts, before getting back to winning ways in the G.1 bet365 Fillies' Mile over this track and trip in October on the soft; See The Fire third. She hails from a family that has produced plenty of winners but most were better over 1m2f-1m4f and I wonder if middle-distances will be more her thing this season and there could be a couple in here with a tadge more pace than her. Ramatuelle warmed-up for this by finishing second in the 7f G.3 Prix Imprudence on heavy ground last month behind Romantic Style. She is an interesting runner as connections have chosen to send her for this rather than stay in France and the daughter of Justify should pick-up some decent prize money but I can’t see her winning. Darnation beat Pretty Crystal in the 7f G.3 Prestige Fillies' Stakes and See The Fire in the mile G.2 May Hill Stakes on soft last year and is perhaps overpriced. You would think she wouldn’t want the ground on the firm side so any more rain would definitely help her chances. Cinderellas Dream will be partnered by French jockey Mickael Barzalona. Charlie Appleby was talking of potentially keeping this one fresh for the Irish 1,000 Guineas having had a couple of runs out in Dubai, winning the Listed mile Jumeirah 1000 Guineas in early March. She will need to step-up on that form here but with a couple of runs under her belt has confirmed her wellness and could pick up a place but this is a step-up on what she has achieved so far. Pretty Crystal took a major step forward on what she achieved at two when winning the 7f G.3 Nell Gwyn Stakes here last month on seasonal debut. That said I think she may turn out to be best over the intermediate trip and the filly that came second to her will definitely reverse the form here. Romantic Style is being aimed by Charlie Appleby at the Poule d'Essai des Pouliches, the trainer convinced the easier mile around a bend will suit her, which leaves Dance Sequence who looks the main hope of the team from Moulton Paddocks. I said after she was second in the 7f G.3 Nell Gwynn (I tipped her) that she still looked green as grass in the finish but kept on to only be beaten a neck and you'd say she would have won if it was a mile. The trials, as I said at the time, are just that and the run will have brought her on, taught her a little more and was more invaluable experience of the Rowley Mile; she won the G.3 7f Oh So Sharp Stakes last season on the course despite being green in the finish. By Dubawi, who of course won the Irish Guineas & Jacques le Marois in his racing career before going on to be a leading sire, she is out of Tearless a winner at Listed level in her day. The family have produced plenty of winners ranging up to middle-distances and many that progressed well throughout their careers. Charlie Appleby said after the Nell Gwynn “There was a bit of pace on and, when they started to quicken, those six and seven-furlong horses just caught her out. Once the penny dropped and she hit the rising ground, it looked as though she was going to do it, but then she had a look at the stands. It was all a bit raw, but importantly there is improvement there mentally as well as fitness-wise.” I am hopeful she will be more track wise on Sunday and I am prepared to give her another chance and I am on at 6-1. See The Fire, a member of the Dirty Dozen this year, didn’t make her debut at two until August when she won over 7f here at HQ. She finished second in the mile G.2 May Hill Stakes at Doncaster on her next start when still noticeably green and then third in the G.1 Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket behind the more seasoned Ylang Ylang and Shuwari. Jeff Smith's homebred is by Sea The Stars and out of Arabian Queen, she is bred to be good, you’d expect improvement as she matures on pedigree and she’s likely to get a little further as the season progresses suggesting a stiff mile may be perfect at this stage. Trainer Andrew Balding has aimed her at this all winter and she is worth a punt at 8-1.

QIPCO 2,000 Guineas

The going at Newmarket is good having seen some pretty horrid weather on Friday. All being well they should have more sunshine than showers on Saturday and Sunday but there is the chance of rain during racing.

City Of Troy is all the rage for the 2,000 Guineas and with no colts putting in an outstanding eye-catching performance in the trials on last years form the Aidan O’Brien trained colt obviously has a massive chance. Unbeaten in three starts as a two-year-old, including the 7f G.2 bet365 Superlative Stakes on the July course in July and the 7f G.1 Dewhurst Stakes on the Rowley Mile in October, you can’t knock the form. That said, as big a chance as he has, I can't be backing one odds-on for the Guineas. I won’t be at all surprised if he wins, probably will, but it will be his first run of the season, not that O’Brien isn’t capable of getting one ready, and that is a slight concern, albeit only slight. Notable Speech arrives unbeaten in his three career starts so far, all this year, all on the Polytrack at Kempton. It would be a most unorthodox route to Guineas glory. By Dubawi out of Swift Rose, an Invincible Spirit mare than won once on the track, on breeding there is enough stamina in there to suggest this relatively stiff mile will be fine but let's be honest he’d be a bigger price if it wasn’t for connections. Rosallion was beaten just once in four starts at two, in the 7f G.2 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster, he signed off his juvenile campaign winning the G.1 7f Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere. Second that day, Unquestionable, went on to win the G.1 mile Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf at Santa Anita in November giving the form a nice late season boost. That said third, fourth, fifth and sixth in the Jean-Luc Lagardere have all been beaten already this season in lesser company so there are now question marks about the form for me. By star sprinter Blue Point there is enough stamina on the dam side to suggest he’ll see out the testing straight mile here but has 8lb to find with City Of Troy on official ratings so will need to have improved markedly over the winter. Trainer Richard Hannon said this week “Mine don’t usually go to the Guineas without a run, but Rosallion has been to Kempton twice and he also went to Newbury the other day, when he had a nice breeze on the bridle.” Juddmonte homebred Task Force is bred for the task being by the all-conquering Frankel, spectacular winner of the race in 2011 and out of Special Duty who won the 1,000 Guineas on 2010 when awarded the race in the Stewards room. He steps up from six-furlongs but there is of course every reason to think he’ll get the trip and the colt underwent wind surgery last autumn following his second-place, behind Vandeek, in the G.1 Middle Park Stakes here in September where he ran on into second looking like a step-up in trip would suit. Ghostwriter is yet to taste defeat having won all three starts as a two-year-old last seen winning the mile G.2 Royal Lodge Stakes over track and trip in September. By top sprinter Invincible Spirit his dam Moorside is a Juddmonte mare who won over 1m4f and stayed further, her dam Marching West was a sprinter, so who knows what this one's best trip might be! The form of the Royal Lodge Stakes is another that looks questionable now, Capulet beaten at odds-on at Chelmsford City, Macduff second in a Derby Trial and Son beaten in the Greenham Stakes this season. He holds a Derby entry and there's every chance he’ll be a middle-distance colt. Alyanaabi finished fourth behind Rosallion at Ascot in the Listed 7f Pat Eddery Stakes in July before winning the 7f G.3 Tattersalls Stakes here at HQ and signed off his two-year-old campaign when a well held second to City Of Troy in the G.1 Dewhurst here so in theory holds each-way claims but he has plenty to find in order to win the race. Night Raider won a 7f Novice Stakes at Southwell in December before kicking-off his three-year-old campaign with a win in the same grade over the same track and trip in Nottinghamshire in March. Similar to Notable Speech it would be an unusual route to a Guineas victory and on breeding there has to be doubt about his ability to stay the stiff mile; by star two-year-old sprinter Dark Angel out of seven-furlong filly Dorraar. Haatem won the G.3 Craven Stakes over track and trip last month and you can’t ignore that but was behind a few of these last season and his stablemate Rosallion certainly appears the yard number one. A big looking colt Haatem may be better when stepped-up in trip to more like 1m2f. Inisherin and Teb Bob Tony are big prices for a reason and shouldn’t be troubling the judge. I mentioned Iberian a little while back in the previews as a horse I know a bit about from last year. The colt won the race Treasure Time, the horse I have a handful of shares in, made his debut in at Newbury so I had a good look at him there and he looked a prospect. Following that he was second to Haatem in the 7f G.2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood given quite a bit to do racing out the back early, before winning the 7f G.2 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster, beating Rosallion. On his final start last season he tired out of contention in the G.1 7f Dewhurst Stakes, won by City Of Troy. He got it all wrong that day, dwelt at the start and out the back early he perhaps had to do too much to get into the race before fading noticeably in the final furlong where he looked to me to get a little unbalanced on the day (trainer said colt was unsuited by the soft ground). The son of French 2,000 Guineas and Derby winner Lope De Vega got the start wrong a couple of times last season and you would think plenty of work has been done on that over the winter by Charlie Hills and the team. Dam Bella Estrella is a High Chaparral mare that won over a mile three times in her career up to Listed level. At best price 40-1 I think he he is worth a speculative each-way punt with Tom Marquand in the saddle again.

3rd May 2024:

In what looks a fairly open year sixteen fillies will go to post for the 1,000 Guineas on Sunday with the runners for the second Classic of the season confirmed

1,000 Guineas runners and riders

2nd May 2024 

Eleven colts will go to post for the 2,000 Guineas on Saturday with the runners for the first Classic of the season confirmed. The runners and riders can be seen below. 

2,000 Guineas runners and riders

Alyanaabi Jim Crowley (8)
City Of Troy Ryan Moore (2)
Ghostwriter Richard Kingscote (3)
Haatem James Doyle (5)
Iberian Tom Marquand (11)
Inisherin Tom Eaves (7)
Night Raider Danny Tudhope (1)
Notable Speech William Buick (6)
Rosallion Sean Levey (4)
Task Force Rossa Ryan (9)
Ten Bob Tony Saffie Osborne (10)

1st May 2024: 

French raider Ramatuelle had her final major piece of work at Chantilly on Tuesday morning reportedly pleasing both her trainer and big-race rider Aurelien Lemaitr with trainer Christopher Head saying he cannot wait to saddle his first British Classic runner in Sunday's QIPCO 1,000 Guineas. The daughter of Justify will tackle a mile for the first time at Newmarket. She finished her two-year-old campaign being beaten a short neck to Vandeek in the 6f G.1 Prix Morny, and began her three-year-old campaign finishing second to the Godolphin owned Romantic Style, who is being aimed at the Poule d’Essai des Pouliches, when trying seven furlongs for the first time in the Prix Imprudence at the start of April.

29th April 2024:

The confirmations for the first Classic races of the Turf season are in with the 2,000 Guineas running Saturday and 1,000 Guineas Sunday: 

Qipco 2,000 Guineas confirmations 

Alyanaabi Owen Burrows
City Of Troy Aidan O'Brien​​
Diego Velazquez Aidan O'Brien
Ghostwriter Clive Cox​​
Haatem Richard Hannon
Henry Longfellow Aidan O'Brien
Iberian Charlie Hills
Inisherin Kevin Ryan
Night Raider Karl Burke
Notable Speech Charlie Appleby
River Tiber Aidan O'Brien
Rosallion Richard Hannon
Task Force Ralph Beckett
Ten Bob Tony Ed Walker

Qipco 1,000 Guineas confirmations 

Brilliant Aidan O'Brien
Cinderella's Dream Charlie Appleby
Content Aidan O'Brien
Dance Sequence Charlie Appleby
Darnation Karl Burke
Elmalka Roger Varian
Fallen Angel Karl Burke
Finsceal Luas Jim Bolger
Lunar Eclipse David Simcock
Porta Fortuna Donnacha O'Brien
Pretty Crystal Richard Fahey
Ramatuelle Christopher Head
Regal Jubilee John and Thady Gosden​​
Rolica Jane Chapple-Hyam
Sacred Angel Charlie Johnston
See The Fire Andrew Balding
Star Music Richard Hughes
Star Style Richard Hannon
Tamfana David Menuisier
Ylang Ylang Aidan O'Brien

26th April 2024: 

Before racing at Sandown Park today, and specifically the 1m2f Group Three bet365 Classic Trial, I have back Arabian Crown each-way for the Derby. My thinking is simple, he clearly has a chance on what he has achieved thus far and if he wins the trial, as I believe he will, 12's will be long gone. Trainer Charlie Appleby said this week “Arabian Crown has track experience at Sandown, which is always handy, and we were pleased with his recent racecourse gallop at Newmarket. It’s the same situation with a lot of early three-year-olds as we are trying to find out where the rest of the season lies. We will hopefully be a lot wiser afterwards as to whether he’s a Derby horse or not.” By Dubawi he is out of Dubai Rose who comes from a family that have produced a number of middle-distance winners and she herself has a number of winning offspring notably multiple middle-distance Group winner in France The Juliet Rose. He went well in a morning workout at Newmarket during the Craven meeting and all being well will book his place in the big race this afternoon.  

24th April 2024: 

Reportedly City Of Troy has continued to impress Aidan O'Brien and "hasn't put a foot wrong" according to the master of Ballydoyle in his preparation for the Qipco 2,000 Guineas. I know O’Brien is unlikely to put out a bad report but it must have others worried with the Guineas potentially the first leg of what might just turn into a Triple Crown bid for last season's champion European two-year-old. 

22nd April 2024: 

It is the first year for many that I have had not one ante-post punt on any of the Classics weeks if not months in advance. The reason is simple, I think it is a strange year. City Of Troy sits at the head of the market for the 2,000 Guineas and the Derby and is second favourite for the St Leger! It's wonderful to think we have have one of the all time greats potentially to look forward to in 2024 but it does make having a bet somewhat more complicated when you have a colt that appears, as it stands, to be head and shoulders above the rest. Ocean Of Dreams was on my mind as a potential big price each-way Derby bet but he came out at Leopardstwon in the 1m3f G.3 Ballysax Stakes in April, jumped the path 7f out, and returned lame! I can't be backing him at the moment. Godolphin owned Arabian Crown is due to run in the G.3 1m2f bet365 Classic Trial at Sandown so won't be at Newmarket after that whilst stablemate Ancient Wisdom may run but is surely more a Derby colt. That leaves the main hope for Moulton Paddocks Notable Speech who will arrive unbeaten in his three career starts so far, all this year, all on the Polytrack at Kempton. It would be a most unorthodox route to Guineas glory. Haatem won the 7f G.3 Craven Stakes and could run a race at a fair price, Hannon certainly likes the colt. Iberian is another at a larger price that could run a race, especially if it comes up fast on the day. The colt won the race Treasure Time, the horse I have a handful of shares in, made debut in at Newbury so I had a good look at him there and he looked a prospect. Following that he was second to Haatem in the 7f G.2 Vintage Stakes, winning the 7f G.2 Champagne Stakes and tiring out of contention in the G.1 7f Dewhurst Stakes won by City Of Troy on soft ground at the end of the season; clearly did not enjoy the going. 

As for the fillies the issue is the complete opposite in that it is, at the moment at least, a very competitive year and I for one could make a case for several fillies in the 1,000 Guineas; the injury to winter favourite Opera Singer muddying the waters further. We may see Opera Singer in the Irish 1,000 Guineas but she won't be at Newmarket. Fallen Angel currently heads the 1,000 Guineas market and goes straight to the race having had a racecourse gallop at the Craven meeting. Last seen winning the G.1 7f Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh in September she has an obvious chance and Karl Burke and the team are making all the right noises about her. I agree with Charlie Appleby that Dance Sequence finishing second in the 7f G.3 Nell Gwyn Stakes isn't perhaps such a bad thing; the 'trials' are there to be trials at the end of the day. She still looked green as grass in the finish but kept on and was only beaten a neck and you'd say she would have won if it was a mile. She will have learnt a bit again and it will have blown away the cobwebs, I wouldn't write her off yet. I noted Charlie Appleby saying on the Godolphin website "We are delighted with Dance Sequence. I said to William in the paddock, ‘don’t forget how raw she was last year when winning’. She has been handled very well through the winter and the most important day is in two and a half weeks’ time. Today was a stepping stone towards the Guineas and it happened exactly how we thought it might do. There was a bit of pace on and, when they started to quicken, those six and seven-furlong horses just caught her out. Once the penny dropped and she hit the rising ground, it looked as though she was going to do it, but then she had a look at the stands. It was all a bit raw, but importantly there is improvement there mentally as well as fitness-wise.” Ylang Ylang has always looked potentially more an Oaks filly to me and signed-off her two-year-old campaign winning the G.1 bet365 Fillies' Mile at HQ, over the Guineas track and trip, in October. If it was soft going for the first weekend of May, and it could be the spring we are having, she would have to be on any shortlist. See The Fire is one of my Dirty Dozen for the year and Andrew Balding is aiming her at the 1,000 Guineas early in the campaign. Having won on debut she was Second in the G.2 mile Betfred May Hill Stakes at Doncaster before finishing third in the G.1 bet365 Fillies' Mile being the far more experience Ylang Ylang hanging left towards the end and losing out late on. I wouldn't be surprised if she stays a little further as the season progresses but with a winter on her back she may be able to reverse the form with Ylang Ylang at this trip. I noted Balding saying in the stable magazine "She has wintered very well at Littleton Stud, is back in work at Kingsclere and full of beans in her morning exercise. She is likely to head straight to the 1,000 Guineas without a prep race as she handled the challenges of the Rowley Mile when third in the Group 1 Fillies’ Mile on her latest start..........she will have entries in all the top fillies’ races to keep her options open. She is a hugely exciting horse to have in the yard." 

It's 8's the field for the Oaks with double figure odds available about everything barring Ylang Ylang.