Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe ante-post bet 2018

Enable is due to return to the track in the 1m4f Group Three September Stakes at 2.05 over at Kempton this Saturday.  The filly is 5-1 for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at the time of writing and that interests me. 

I know the 3yo fillies would get 7lb off her with the race conditions at Longchamp, but at her best (OR 128) she could give them that and a couple of pounds more. She, in turn, would get 3lb sex allowance from the likes of the older colts Cracksman, Crystal Ocean and Poets Word whilst 3yo colt Roaring Lion would get 3lb off her but is a doubtful stayer on ground that is likely to be softer than ideal if he shows up at all bearing in mind he is jolly for the 1m2f Irish Champion Stakes and Champions Stakes at Ascot. 

If she trots up on Saturday at Kempton her price for the first weekend of October will tumble so I have taken the 5-1 for the Arc rather than bet at what is likely to be odds-on this Saturday. Crystal Ocean was a surprise name amongst ten entries for the September Stakes but would have had to give the star filly 8lb under race conditions this weekend. 
Be lucky