Best bet for the horse racing on New Years Eve

It's a nice card at Lingfield on New Years Eve, sort of meeting I'd like to be at if only I could be. I will be having abet though and will just have to settle down in the old armchair with the Sky coverage on. The race I am betting in is the one-mile Bombardier British-Hopped Amber Beer Handicap due off at 2.00. 
It can be a funny old game this horse racing malarkey. Andrew Balding may well of thought he had a potentially fair handicapper on his hands after the first three starts, as a two-year-old, in the career of Fox Duty Free. For whatever reason when he returned to the track at three he clearly decided he didn't like the game unseating his rider on fourth start at Kempton and refusing to run at Chester on his fifth racetrack visit. The snips were reached for after the first incident. He was moved to the stable of Ralph Beckett and has subsequently won on both starts for the stable over the seven-furlong track on the Polytrack down in Surrey. Now up to a mark of 92, and trying this distance for the first time, well effectively as he didn't get very far at Kempton back in June, I think he can make it three course victories on the spin. Get on the reformed character s I have at the 11-8 early with Hills.
Be lucky