Best bet for the horse racing at Southwell this evening

I am having a bet up at Southwell on the Fibresand this evening; hopefully a winner to pay a few of the old Christmas debts off. 
The race in question is the 5.00 the mile Play Ladbrokes 5-A-Side On Football Nursery. Restricted Area looks to be getting the hang of things and was 1¼ lengths third to Swinton Noon in a nursery over this C&D 21 days ago. He blew the start somewhat that day which did not help but was staying on best at the finish and Shane Kelly wasn't overly tough on him if you watch the race back. Callum Shepherd takes over in the saddle with Kelly suspended this evening and with the colt getting 10lb from the winner at the weights from the race earlier this month he has every chance of getting his first win here. I would expect to see him covered up early, though hopefully a lot closer to the pace than last time, and swoop late. I have the 11-4 early.
Be lucky