Cheltenham Festival 2023

Willie Mullins had the top three in the betting for this last week telling you how strong a hand he holds, in fact Irish entries dominate and it certainly looks likely this trophy will be crossing the Irish Sea. Blood Destiny will be the fancy of many and certainly has a chance. Lossiemouth needs to turn around recent form with Gala Marceau at Leopardstown but it can certainly be argued she was unlucky in running that day, and I have a feeling she might be the best of the Mullins battalion. Rich Ricci has had a very quiet Festival by his standards but this grey filly can take full advantage of her 7lb allowance and take this prize. I am on at 13-8. 

2m1f McCoy Contractors County Handicap Hurdle

A proper competitive handicap this. Sharjah, runner-up in both the 2020 and 2021 Champion Hurdles, is a fascinating contender off top-weight dropping back into handicap company. Pied Piper, third in the Triumph last year, is another dropping back into handicap company but both have plenty of weight to carry naturally. Hunters Yarn looks to be on the upgrade and you expect there is more to come from him yet. He won a Listed Novice at Navan last time with what appeared plenty in hand and is the pick for this at 6-1 this morning. 

Banbridge doesn't run which in my eyes makes this a little easier. I have heard Mighty Potter being talked of as a potential Gold Cup winner of the future and it’s hard to knock what he has achieved thus far over the larger obstacles, has two G.1 wins to his name already. He was pulled-up in the Supreme Hurdle last year but that is really the only blot on an otherwise pretty good looking copybook. I don't like punting odds-on shots at the Festival but I am on this one at 8-11. Appreciate It could be anything over this trip and is considered the danger. 

3m Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle

Thanksforthehelp won as he liked over 2m7f at Chepstow last time and the 11lb rise may not stop him, but it is plenty. Walking On Air hadn't perhaps achieved what was expected of him until his last run at Exeter. He gets in here with just a 5lb rise for that win meaning he is off a mark of just 138 which could look very lenient after this. Apparently he was considered a potential Grade One horse once upon a time in Seven Barrows and if that is right he is chucked in here off his current official mark. The going is a bit of an unknown but at 9-1 he can be backed each-way (6 places) which is what I have done. 

Grade One 2m4½f Ryanair Chase

Shishkin is the second leg of my Henderson double after Constitution Hill destroyed the Champion Hurdle field on Tuesday. He won at Ascot as he liked on his first try over the trip looking to be back to his best following a few issues. If he puts in a similar effort and he did in the Ascot Chase he is home and hosed here. Blue Lord may be the one to follow him home. 

Grade One 3m Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle

As on Tuesday the Amateurs are in the saddle for the lucky last Thursday. I have heard from more than one decent judge that the team at Willie Mullins yard won't hear of defeat for Mr Incredible. He will have the burden of top-weight but warmed up nicely for this when second in a decent handicap at Warwick in January over 3m5f on heavy. The lightly raced seven-year-old has some talent, chased home the likes of Ahoy Senor in his Novice season of 2021, and if Mullins has reignited the spark that was there a while back, and he behaves himself, he could win this hard held. I am on at 6-1. Stumptown is at the head of the market but this is a step-up in distance and class for him as well as being 10lb higher in the weights. 

Day two dawns and I am suffering from the traditional opening day hangover. Great day down there yesterday, as ever even if not as profitable as I had hoped. Ladies' day as Wednesday is now marketed is one of my favourite days of the Festival, not for girls is daft hats, but because the main event is the two-mile Queen Mother Champion Chase; I do love the race, there is something about a great two-miler that sets the pulse racing. We race on Soft (Good to Soft in places) on day two with the chance of some rain on the day. 

It’s a good race to get day two underway and as strong a hand as Willie Mullins looks to be holding I think he will be playing second fiddle in this one. I noted Paul Nicholls naming Hermes Allen as one of his best chances for the Festival a while back and I fancy him for this. Nicholls mentioned in the interview for Tattersalls that the gelding has matured and it appears it has all come together at the right time for the six-year-old. He looked a talent winning at Stratford in October on stable debut and confirmed that winning over track and trip at Cheltenham in November in the G.2 Hyde Hurdle. He cemented his place at the head of the market with an easy victory in the G.1 Challow Hurdle at Newbury on new years eve and looks a solid bet to me. I have the 100-30 this morning. Impaire Et Passe has won both starts over hurdles thus far and announced himself as the Irish big hope when darting clear in G.2 in January at Punchestown; he has looked talented but has to prove he stays and despite the fact he has won on soft going that will still become an even bigger question mark if the rain arrives. 

Gerri Colombe is short but boasts an unbeaten record the last two being G.1’s having won the Scilly Isles Novices' Chase on good to soft last time and another G.1 on soft to heavy at Limerick prior to that. This will be his first attempt at three miles under rules, but a point-to-point victory over the distance and his pedigree both indicate it shouldn't be an issue, but it is a question that needs answering. Sir Gerhard is a dual Festival winner but has very limited chasing experience, one run which was a win in a Beginners Chase. He has run only once beyond two-miles under rules, when he won the 2m5f Ballymore Novices' Hurdle here last season, so has a number of questions to be answered at this level over this trip. Thyme Hill won the three-mile G.1 Kauto Star Novices' Chase at Kempton last time on soft and I am a little surprised he is as big a price as he is. He won’t mind getting his toe-in, is a proven stayer, and looks to be getting the hang of of this chasing game; I will admit he had looked a slightly suspect jumper after the switch from hurdles. At the prices I think he is the value and worth a punt at 10-1 each-way.

Camprond will be fancied by many but all his best efforts have been on pretty decent going and all the recent rain has done his chances no favours. Run For Oscar is one I know well, I tipped him when he won the Cesarewitch, and he is very much on the shortlist. His hurdle mark has slowly edge upwards and this would now require a career best but if anyone can ready one it's his trainer! HMS Seahorse has done me a couple of favours, backed him each-way in the Fred Winter last year when fourth and when he won last time at Navan. Trainer Paul Nolan said after that win at Navan “The Coral Cup is the plan, and we'll train him for that. He's been gelded and that seemed to improve his jumping and make him more clued up. He’s a very small horse, he's only 15.1 hands, but there is plenty of depth to him. He’s a solid little horse and has a good attitude.” I am on the five-year-old again at 10-1 each-way (6 places) as I am convinced he'll place at the very least and could well nick this on going he will enjoy; Nolan aint far behind Charles Byrnes when it comes to ability to get one ready. 

A two-time track and trip winner and second in this in 2021 Nube Negra looks a big price but with just the seven lining-up the each-way option isn’t there. Edwardstone won the Arkle well last year and took the Tingle Creek in December but has a bit to prove after his last two runs. Last years winner Energumene won on seasonal reappearance at Cork but was well held in the G.1 Clarence House Chase last time, Edwardstone second, so also has questions to answer now. Editeur Du Gite battled gamely to beat Edwardstone in the aforementioned Clarence House on soft going and has to be shortlisted off the back of that run though they probably let him have it his own way a little there and I doubt he'll get an easy a time up front in this. He knows his way round here and has plenty of C&D form, plus he won the G.2 Desert Orchid Chase on soft in December. I have gone round and round with this race and have come to the decision that Edwardstone is the solid bet and I am on at 6-4 this morning. 

Stick a pin in time, well not quite but the Bumper as ever is a bit of a guessing game. It's For Me won as he liked on stable debut on soft at Navan and he would appear right up there in the Mullins pecking order with Townend riding. Fun Fun Fun has won both starts by wide margins and gets the 7lb allowance and looks like another good chance for the Mullins yard and owners Simon Munir & Isaac Souede (also own It’s For me). That said Adreamtoshare is three from three and has looked pretty decent from what I have seen the concern with him is the going; two wins on good and one on yielding but who knows might be better still on soft. A recent purchase by J P. McManus I don't like backing the jolly in this but he is the selection at 4-1 to beat the Mullins battalion.  

It's Cheltenham Festival week! As is now a long-held tradition for Champion Hurdle Day old Girdy will be up at sparrows fart for the pilgrimage to Prestbury Park. It’s the usual suspects of Mr Wilson, Mr Griffiths, Mr O’Leary and I though this year we have booked into the Festival Lounge, a step-up from the usual Club Enclosure. You get a free racecard and complimentary tea and coffee (not sure we’ll take much advantage of that) but all being well we should be able to get a sit down having a beer at some point as it is limited capacity - or exclusive as I like to describe it.

We are on the Old course for the first two days and the going on Monday evening is soft with the forecast for rain on and off all week. There will be little sleep from now until Friday evening; four days, twenty-eight races and plenty of fun. Here we go again.

The roar will go up at 1.30 for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle. High Definition is my each-way punt for this, I am on at 25-1 each-way (3-places) ante-post. Took a tumble when last seen giving Facile Vega a run for his money in the race that saw the jolly finally get beaten. Won well enough at Leopardstown in hurdling debut prior to that and I am still convinced if he comes over the last somewhere towards the front of the field his class and flat speed can see him place up at least. I just hope he has been doing plenty of hurdling practice at home. Tahmuras enters calculations with the soft undehoof conditions having won his last two starts on soft ground, including the G.1 Tolworth Hurdle. Facile Vega heads the market and it will be fascinating to see how they run him in this; the way he went out like a light last time I can't have him.

The betting has had this as a two horse race for a while with Jonbon and El Fabiolo heading the market. I am in the camp that is far from convinced about the jumping of El Fabiolo, and if there is one place you need to jump well it’s in a G.1 at Cheltenham. He might get them all right and win, but for me his jumping is a little too suspect to be lumping on in a race such as this. Jonbon hasn’t perhaps had much to beat so far this year, but he has been winning as he should and most importantly has jumped well on every run. I am a little surprised he isn’t shorter than he is having beaten El Fabiolo in the Betway Top Novices' Hurdle at Aintree last year (the second let down by his jumping over the smaller obstacles) and the fact the only horse to beat him so far is Constitution Hill in the Supreme here last season; take the winner out the race and he would have looked a decent winner of that! I am on at the 6-4 I took ante-post last week.

The first of many tricky handicaps this week and a case can be made for a few of them. Lucinda Russell has been talking of her excitement to saddle the defending champion Corach Rambler. The nine-year-old is only 6lb higher in the weights than when winning last year and his chance is obvious. Jonjo O’Neil knows how to win this race so his Monbeg Genius has to enter calculations as he could have more to offer yet. Happygolucky is one I have talked of before, I backed him when second in this in 2021, and he is also shortlisted but he aint done much lately and the yard is in terrible form. The Big Breakaway stays further and goes on the soft so is likely to be staying on as others start to falter. The eight-year-old has gone well here in the past, is pretty consistent, and I think is over priced. I am on at 16-1 each-way (5-places) with Coral overnight in the hope he can pick them off up the hill he will surely at the least stay on into a place.

This should simply be a procession at the end of which Constitution Hill is crowned Champ. State Man is over from Ireland, and could give him a bit of a race at least, but on all known form the machine that is Constitution Hill should climb Cheltenham hill in splendid isolation. Unbackable at the odds, he is part of a Nicky Henderson double for me with Shishkin the second leg on day three.

A race that has been talked of a lot in the build-up but not necessarily for the right reasons. Anyhow, whatever your opinion is, Honeysuckle runs in this and no doubt will be fancied by many. I have never been totally convinced by her and I am happy to take her on here as I think she aint as good as she was, and she never was that good anyway. Epatante runs here now and has shown she gets the 2m4f trip winning the G.1 Aintree Hurdle last back end. She had a good view of the rear end of Honeysuckle in the last two Champion Hurdles though so I can’t have her. Love Envoi could run a big race with the amount of rain we’ve had and has an each-way shout. Brandy Love made her seasonal reappearance in the G.2 Quevega Mares Hurdle at Punchestown last month when third, giving away in excess of half-a-stone to the opposition. She went well there for a long way after ten-months off and that will surely have put her spot on for this. Her win at Fairyhouse over 2m4f in the G.1 Mares Novice Hurdle Championship Final last April was impressive, Love Envoi second, but I think she would ideally like it faster. Maries Rock, winner of this race last year, is back to defend her title and is the pick. She won the G.2 Relkeel Hurdle here over this trip on New Years day on the soft and I see no reason she can’t go in again. I have the 5-2 overnight.

Tekao has been short as in the build-up for this, 3-1 now, which is pretty skinny when you consider the type of race it is. That said, reports suggest he has been working well and a tilt at the G.1 Triumph was apparently considered. I can’t have him at the price though. I can’t have McTigue either who I backed recently after such a bad run. Paul Nicholls doesn’t run many in this so the fact Afadil is in caught the eye. A winner of his first two starts here in the UK having come from France he ran terribly at Haydock last month (trainer's rep could offer no explanation for the poor form shown other than the race may have come too soon for gelding). Has won on the soft and as a French import you’d expect soft would be fine anyway. I think he looked like one to follow until his shocker a Haydock and the fact Nicholls runs him suggests there is no real issue and at 20-1 I am on each-way (6-places) with Power.

The lucky last on day one. Gaillard Du Mensil has been trading short in the build-up and given the fact he is rated about half-a-stone better than the rest of the field and has Patrick booked to ride it perhaps isn’t surprising. A second-season novice he has more experience to call on than the majority of the field and has been in with some good ones. Last year he finished a well-held third to Galopin Des Champs at the Dublin Racing Festival, was third again this time behind L'Homme Presse in the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase at last season's Festival and put in another great effort when third in the Irish Grand National. Warmed up for this when behind Mighty Potter at Leopardstown last month over a two-and-a-half mile trip that is far too short for him; that will have put him cherry ripe for this though. I have a bit of the Evens NRNB I took ante-post.